不完全信息下军事威逼讨价还价博弈分析

在详细分析威慑与威逼区别的基础上,构建了不完全信息下军事威逼讨价还价博弈模型。按照最大期望效用准则,分析了不完全信息下军事威逼走向讨价还价阶段的条件,研究表明:运用鲁宾斯坦经典讨价还价唯一完美均衡解,得出以下结论:争夺目标自身的效用越大,战争带来的声誉得益效用越大,军事威逼走向讨价还价阶段的可能性越大;一旦进入讨价还价阶段,威逼者会接受挑战者提出的方案,冲突将不再发生。     

再生分辨矩阵与决策熵的不完备决策系统属性约简

为了有效地解决不完备决策系统的属性约简问题,提高属性约简的效率,提出了基于再生分辨矩阵与决策熵的不完备属性约简算法。该算法利用基于容差关系的分辨矩阵来计算相对核,通过再生分辨矩阵计算再生集和再生集属性来缩小加入约简集的条件属性选择范围,以再生集属性的分辨度和决策熵为依据,选择加入约简集的条件属性,并通过实例进行验证分析。结果表明,该算法适用于协调不完备决策系统与不协调不完备决策系统,能够有效地降低时间复杂度,并得到最优属性约简。     

Solving partially observable agent‐intruder games with an application to border security problems

In this paper, we introduce partially observable agent‐intruder games (POAIGs). These games model dynamic search games on graphs between security forces (an agent) and an intruder given possible (border) entry points and high value assets that require protection. The agent faces situations with dynamically changing, partially observable information about the state of the intruder and vice versa. The agent may place sensors at selected locations, while the intruder may recruit partners to observe the agent's movement. We formulate the problem as a two‐person zero‐sum game, and develop efficient algorithms to compute each player's optimal strategy. The solution to the game will help the agent choose sensor locations and design patrol routes that can handle imperfect information. First, we prove the existence of ?‐optimal strategies for POAIGs with an infinite time horizon. Second, we introduce a Bayesian approximation algorithm to identify these ?‐optimal strategies using belief functions that incorporate the imperfect information that becomes available during the game. For the solutions of large POAIGs with a finite time horizon, we use a solution method common to extensive form games, namely, the sequence form representation. To illustrate the POAIGs, we present several examples and numerical results.     

舰船机电系统非完备使用故障数据分析

舰船机电系统在使用维修过程中所记录的故障数据通常质量不高,信息记录不完整、不准确。针对这类不完备数据,利用图示法给出故障趋势的判定。在此基础上,分别利用齐次泊松过程、非齐次泊松过程和几何过程,对装备的历史故障数据进行分析。结果表明,几何过程产生的拟合误差最小,可预测装备的未来故障强度。     

The Enfield Lock Barrel Mill of 1815 and Moves to Replace Musket Barrel Grinding by Turning c1780 to c1840

In 1841 Henry Wilkinson in his book Engines of War and William Greener in The Science of Gunnery describe a range of methods then in use for shaping the outside of gun barrels after the barrel forging process, ranging from manual off-hand grinding to the use of precision machines. In the same year G. & J. Rennie published the design of their state-of-the-art lathe that was capable of turning complex and dished barrel forms. This built upon the earlier work of both Henry Nock and John Jones. In the early years of the 19th century both Britain, at Enfield and other locations, and the USA, at Harpers Ferry and Springfield, began to introduce barrel-turning technology. This paper uses measurements taken from a significant number of military barrels made by several makers, and also newly exposed information about Henry Nock and the Enfield Factory of 1815, to understand better the technologies that were applied to military flintlock barrel finishing from the 1780s to the 1840s, and particularly during the major wars of 1793–1815, when high output was paramount. Measurements both of barrel form and out-of-roundness are presented. These allow the interpretation of the techniques being used by different makers at different locations, and raise questions about the purpose and achievement of the complex dished barrel forms found on British military flintlock muskets. This approach also allows us to better describe the earliest factory on the Enfield site, one of the most significant sites in the wider history of UK manufacturing.     

基于不完全测量数据的飞行器轨迹参数估计

提出基于稀疏优化的轨迹参数估计新方法,通过降低参数空间的维数改善模型的病态性。利用B样条函数实现轨迹参数的稀疏表示,根据轨迹参数与测量数据的关系建立估计轨迹参数的稀疏表示寻优模型,采用高斯牛顿法获得模型的解。寻优模型中待估参数的数量取决于样条节点数,利用样条函数的高阶导数在节点处的不连续性建立了选取样条节点的稀疏优化模型,采用凸优化方法求解该模型,实现样条节点数的最小化。仿真结果表明,稀疏优化方法能够大幅度提高不完全测量段落轨迹参数的估计精度。